Professor Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), will leave office in October 2025 after completing the constitutional maximum of two terms, a total of 10 years.
His exit is already attracting attention, as the individual President Bola Tinubu chooses as his successor will play a decisive role in shaping the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, where Tinubu is widely expected to seek re-election.
Why Yakubu’s departure matters?
Yakubu, who supervised the 2019 and 2023 polls, is the longest-serving INEC chairman since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999. His successor’s perceived impartiality will be central to whether Nigerians view the next election as free and fair.
The controversies under Yakubu
The 2023 elections drew heavy criticism, especially from opposition parties, over technical failures and late distribution of materials. These lapses fueled claims of bias and incompetence. Calls for Yakubu’s removal persisted, and rumours of his early dismissal circulated earlier this year before being dismissed as false.
Speculation about a successor
After Mahmood Yakubu, Who Becomes INEC’s Next Chairman in 2025?
No official candidate has been named, but speculation continues over whether Tinubu will nominate someone from the South West, his home region, or from the North Central, which along with the South West is yet to produce an INEC chair since 1999.
Although, a recent unverified report naming Professor Bashiru Olamilekan, a Yoruba scholar, has intensified speculation.
Has regional balance shaped appointments before?
Historically, presidents have avoided selecting INEC chairs from their own regions to limit accusations of bias:
- Olusegun Obasanjo (South West) picked Abel Guobadia (South South) and Maurice Iwu (South East).
- Goodluck Jonathan (South South) chose Attahiru Jega (North West).
- Muhammadu Buhari (North West) appointed Mahmood Yakubu (North East).
This precedent means Tinubu will face scrutiny if he picks from the South West.
Would a South West appointment spark controversy?
Yes. Critics argue that Tinubu’s government has already favoured his home region in several appointments. However, former INEC commissioner Professor Lai Olurode insists that appointing a South Westerner would not necessarily breach ethical standards, provided the candidate is qualified.
Why professors usually get the job?
With the exception of Justice Ephraim Akpata, every INEC chair since 1999 has been a professor. Legal analyst Olukoya Ogungbeje explains this is custom, not law, stressing: “There is no legal requirement that only a professor can lead INEC.”
How the process works?
The president nominates a candidate, consults the Council of State, and forwards the name to the Senate for confirmation. In practice, however, the president dominates both the council and usually the Senate, giving him wide influence.
The Senate has blocked only one Tinubu nominee so far; Nasir El-Rufai whose rejection was reportedly linked to Tinubu’s own political calculations. [Source: The Africa Reports]
Weak safeguards, lingering reforms
Analysts argue that safeguards against partisan appointments remain weak. Ogungbeje and other reform advocates cite the 2008 Uwais Report, which proposed reforms to depoliticise INEC leadership appointments. Those recommendations remain unimplemented, leaving the process open to presidential influence.
Beyond appointments: INEC’s operational challenges?
The commission still faces major systemic problems. The 2023 elections exposed widespread failures of new technologies such as BVAS and IReV, as well as persistent logistical lapses like late delivery of election materials.
Though recent off-cycle elections have shown some improvements, experts stress the need for stronger technical backups and clearer legal frameworks for electronic versus manual collation of results.
The road ahead
President Tinubu’s choice will go beyond filling a vacancy; it will help determine whether Nigerians trust the 2027 elections. A South West nominee could inflame criticism, while a neutral regional appointment may boost confidence.
In the end, Tinubu’s decision will reveal whether he prioritises credibility or political advantage, a choice that may define both his legacy and the trajectory of Nigeria’s democracy.
