The World Bank has issued a stark warning about the devastating impact of conflict and instability on 39 developing economies, including Nigeria.
According to its latest report, its first major review of fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) since the COVID-19 pandemic; these countries are falling further behind on critical development goals, with alarming rises in poverty, hunger, and unemployment.
While most developing nations are making modest economic gains, conflict-afflicted economies are sliding backward. The report reveals that per capita GDP in these countries has declined by 1.8% annually since 2020, in contrast to a 2.9% increase in other developing nations.
Countries at Risk
The 39 countries identified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations include Afghanistan, Haiti, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Nigeria, as well as several others across Africa, the Middle East, and the Pacific Islands.
In Africa alone, nations such as Burkina Faso, Chad, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, and Zimbabwe made the list. Combined, these economies are home to over 421 million people living on less than $3 a day; a figure the Bank says will rise to 435 million by 2030, accounting for nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor.
“For the last three years, the world’s attention has been on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Yet, more than 70% of those suffering from conflict and instability are Africans. Misery on this scale is inevitably contagious,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist at the World Bank.
Persistent Crises
- Half of the 39 countries identified have endured ongoing conflict or instability for 15 years or more.
- 21 of them are currently in active conflict.
- While extreme poverty in other developing countries has dropped to 6%, the average in conflict-affected states remains near 40%.
Economic Decline and Job Crisis
The report stresses that these nations are not generating enough jobs to match population growth, leading to widespread economic stagnation.
“Economic stagnation rather than growth has been the norm in economies hit by conflict and instability over the past decade and a half,” said M. Ayhan Kose, World Bank Group Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
He urged the global community to step up with targeted investments in governance, infrastructure, health, education, and private-sector development to revive these struggling economies.
Signs of Hope: Natural Resources and Demographics
Despite the grim outlook, the Bank highlighted potential growth drivers:
- Natural resource wealth: Profits from oil, gas, minerals, and forests account for over 13% of GDP in these economies—three times higher than in other developing countries.
- Mineral reserves critical for the global energy transition, especially in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique.
- A young and growing workforce: By 2055, nearly two-thirds of the working-age population in developing countries will be in conflict-affected economies.
To tap into this “demographic dividend,” the Bank emphasized the urgent need to improve access to quality education, healthcare, and private-sector opportunities.
“Jumpstarting growth and development here will not be easy, but it can be done and it has been done before,” Kose added.
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