The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 upward to 3.4%, marking a 0.4 percentage point increase from its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast of 3.0%.
The updated figures, published in the IMF’s July 2025 WEO Update, reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook for Nigeria, underpinned by improving global trade conditions, easing financial constraints, and moderate inflationary pressure. The report also projects a 3.2% growth rate for Nigeria in 2026, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the April forecast.
According to the IMF, these revisions mirror broader global improvements, particularly in trade and investment flows, resulting from lower-than-expected tariff impacts and more favorable financial conditions. Nigeria’s updated figures keep it ahead of South Africa, which maintains a flat 1.0% growth forecast for 2025, and a modest 1.3% for 2026. However, Nigeria still lags behind the Sub-Saharan Africa regional average, projected at 4.0% and 4.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Global Economy Forecasted to Expand by 3.0%
The IMF also raised its global economic growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025, up from 2.8% in April. For 2026, global growth is now projected at 3.1%, supported by stronger-than-anticipated front-loading of trade activities and looser financial conditions in major economies.
“Global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026… driven by a combination of front-loaded trade activities, reduced effective US tariff rates, improved financial conditions including a weaker US dollar, and fiscal expansion in key jurisdictions,” the IMF stated.
Global headline inflation is also expected to ease, falling to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, roughly in line with the April projections. However, the IMF warned that inflation trajectories will vary significantly across countries, with the United States expected to remain above target while other major economies may experience more subdued inflation.
Despite the more optimistic forecast, the IMF cautioned that the momentum may be temporary, largely fueled by front-loaded trade in anticipation of future tariff reinstatements, a scenario that could lead to a “payback” slowdown in 2026.
Nigeria’s Economy Shows Resilience in Q1 2025
Complementing the IMF’s revision, Nigeria’s own data reinforces a narrative of gradual recovery. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, a notable increase from the 2.27% recorded in the same period of 2024.
The performance was supported by strong growth in the services and industrial sectors. In nominal terms, GDP reached N94.05 trillion, compared to N79.51 trillion in Q1 2024, reflecting an 18.30% year-on-year increase.
“This growth rate is higher than the 2.27% recorded in the first quarter of 2024,” the NBS report stated.
The figures follow Nigeria’s recent rebasing of national accounts to 2019 prices, replacing the previous 2010 base year. The NBS said the update was essential to providing a more accurate picture of the economy’s current structure and dynamics.
